A few months ago, I did something that made people tilt their heads and ask questions like, “Are you sure?” or “What if it doesn’t work out?”

I quit a stable, full-time job to go back to school and pursue a master’s degree.

No guaranteed payoff. No income. Just tuition fees, late-night doubts, and a future wrapped in fog.

Why would someone trade stability for uncertainty?

Because sometimes, fighting the curse of uncertainty means leaning into it — not running away.

Living in a Probabilistic World

We love certainty. Our brains crave it. We want the clear path, the guaranteed win, the straight answer. But real life? It doesn’t work like that.

The world is probabilistic. Outcomes are rarely black or white — they’re shades of gray with odds attached. When I was weighing whether to leave my job, I realized: there was no “right” answer, just a range of possible futures. I couldn’t know for sure whether the degree would pay off. But I could estimate my chances.

That’s when I stopped asking, “Will this work out?” and started asking, “What’s the likelihood that this will move me in the direction I want to go?”

How Not to Be Wrong (Even When You Are)

There’s a lesson from Jordan Ellenberg’s How Not to Be Wrong that stuck with me: Being wrong is okay — being confidently wrong is the real danger.

I didn’t want to pretend this decision was risk-free. That would’ve been delusional. Instead, I tried to make a decision that would be less wrong, even if things didn’t pan out the way I hoped.

This is where Bayesian thinking becomes powerful. Instead of making one big decision and locking it in, I chose to think like a Bayesian:

It means that decisions are not one-time verdicts. They’re hypotheses you update.

You start with a belief — a “prior.” Mine was simple: Pursuing this master’s degree will likely create long-term value in my life.

Then, as new evidence rolls in — through coursework, job prospects, feedback, emotional health, financial strain — you update that belief. Small steps, small corrections.

Instead of clinging to a fixed belief or collapsing under the weight of uncertainty, you keep adjusting:

  • If things go better than expected? Raise your confidence.
  • If it’s harder than imagined? Adjust your strategy, not your goal — unless the data strongly suggests otherwise.

Bayesian thinking gives you permission to evolve your perspective. You don’t have to be “right” at the start — you just need to be willing to revise with new evidence.

It’s not about being perfect. It’s about being adaptable, informed, and honest with yourself as you go.

Thinking in Expected Value

When I did the math — not just financially, but in terms of long-term career impact, learning, personal growth, and future opportunity — the expected value of doing the master’s started to look pretty compelling.

Sure, there were downsides: lost income, opportunity cost, and uncertainty. But the upside? A stronger skill set, better job prospects, the ability to work on problems I care about, and the satisfaction of finally scratching that intellectual itch.

It wasn’t a sure win. But on average — across the different ways this could all play out — it seemed worth the risk.

Expected value isn’t about being optimistic. It’s about being realistic over the long run. And over the long run, this decision gave me more than it took away.

Trusting Your Intuition

But here’s the paradox: while Bayesian reasoning sharpens your course intellectually, intuition fuels your journey emotionally.

In the earliest stage of a hard decision, data is scarce. You might not have “proof” — you only have a sense. A gentle pull. A whisper from your deeper self saying: go. And I’ve learned to respect that voice.

That was me, standing at the edge of this choice. My gut told me it was right — long before I could defend it with analysis.

And I’ve learned something crucial:

Intuition isn’t the opposite of reason — it’s what carries you forward when reason alone isn’t enough.

Even Geoffrey Hinton once said:

“If you rely too much on logic, you’ll be stuck in the past. Intuition is how you leap into the future.”

Intuition gives you strength to keep going, especially when the logic gets messy and the world stops making sense. When your model is uncertain and your updates are slow — your gut can still say, keep moving. I can’t go on. I’ll go on.

Planning for Surprises

Of course, I also had to prepare for things not going according to plan. That’s part of good decision-making under uncertainty: not just planning, but planning for surprises.

I set aside savings. I gave myself a clear timeframe to evaluate progress. I stayed open to pivoting. In other words, I didn’t just commit — I committed with a safety net.

This wasn’t reckless. It was calculated risk. That’s the difference between blindly leaping and strategically jumping.

The Takeaway

I won’t pretend the decision was easy. There were sleepless nights. There still are. But I’ve never felt more alive, more curious, or more in control of my direction — even if I can’t control the outcome.

Here’s what I’ve learned so far:

  • Life won’t hand you certainty. Learn to work with uncertainty instead of waiting for it to disappear.
  • You don’t have to be sure — you just have to be informed.
  • Think in terms of probability and expected value, not perfect outcomes.
  • Use Bayesian thinking to update your beliefs and improve decisions over time.
  • Trust your intuition — it’s often your brain connecting dots you can’t yet explain.
  • Plan for when things go sideways — because eventually, they will.
  • Being wrong is okay if you were thoughtful going in.

Uncertainty isn’t something to be feared. It’s something to be navigated — and occasionally, embraced.

And sometimes, the most uncertain step is the one that moves you forward the most.

A Parting Thought

If you’re standing at a crossroads, wondering whether to take that uncertain leap — I don’t have your answer. But I do know this: you’re not alone, and uncertainty doesn’t mean you’re lost. It just means you’re human.

Where the mind is without fear and the head is held high
Where knowledge is free
Where the world has not been broken up into fragments
By narrow domestic walls

Where words come out from the depth of truth
Where tireless striving stretches its arms towards perfection
Where the clear stream of reason has not lost its way
Into the dreary desert sand of dead habit

Where the mind is led forward by thee
Into ever-widening thought and action—

Into that heaven of freedom, my Father, let my country awake.

“Where the mind is without fear” — Rabindranath Tagore